The death of personal computers is being predicted already for several years. With increase of popularity of mobile devices and decrease of PC sales during the last several years, all experts and journalists are waiting that the end of the PC age will come in a little while. The papers about the PC death are published at Wired, The Guardian and Forbes. Look At Me tells what exactly happens with computers.
PC sales drop
Talks about the PC death arise due to simple statistics: computer sale falls while the popularity of mobile devices increases. Some experts consider that all personal computers become out of date conceptually, the other ones — that exactly desktop became outdated while laptops still have a chance. For the sake of simplicity, we will consider them together. Global computer sale was in the forefront in 2011: 365 million PCs were sold. Then, in 2013, it dropped by 10%: it was the most serious decrease in the history of the computer industry.
Now the statistics also looks not really favorably: IDC, which investigates the market, foretells that computer sales will fall still by 5% in 2017; and Intel has decreased forecasts by USD 1 billion for the first quarter of 2017. There are even surveys saying that computers are used, first of all, by adults while the youth prefers other devices. At the first glance, everything looks simply: mobile devices have succeeded traditional PCs. Actually, everything is slightly more difficult.
There is no need to buy computers often.
The first and the main thing that happened to computers in 2010: there is no need to update them often anymore. IDC uses the word “saturation” in its report. Previously, it was necessary to update them permanently: as an example, each version of Windows, Office or even browsers was “heavier” than previous ones and required more power. Each new Mac OS version strongly differed from the previous ones. Buying the new computer, you received serious improvements every time.
Today Windows 7 and 8 perfectly operates at the same systems, at which Windows Vista had operated. Even gaming machines manufactured a few years ago are still able to load new games. If something happens, it is possible to update any component but there is no need to update the PC entirely. People don’t need to replace computers often; therefore, the sale drop is reasonable. This trend was predicted at the beginning of the nineties: it was considered that computers will reach this plateau (when technologies were developed enough, and continuous updating is not necessary) in 1993, but it was required 20 years more to achieve this result.
Internet and mobile devices have changed PCs Besides, we use PCs in a different way now. The Internet has become its major element: we perform all main tasks in it; we can use the tools that had been stored in the computer itself (for example, to write texts using Google Docs). Cloud services will result once upon a time that high-capacity hard drives would not be necessary (that’s why, by the way, laptops have more chances than traditional PCs). Sales of smartphones and tablet computers are higher than PCs, and nobody will deny that it is more convenient to read the favorite sites using a mobile browser and to check mail under way. A desktop computer is not necessary to look for something in Google, to post on Twitter, to use Facebook, to check mail, to listen to music or to arrange the time by means of a calendar — a smartphone with the Internet will be enough. Most people use computers for these purposes, and a PC is just excessive in this case.
BUT…
Traditional PCs still have advantages Nevertheless, it is still early to bury PCs. They have clear advantages — first of all, for those persons, to whom PC is necessary for more complex tasks: as an example, for designers, video editors, sound producers, scientists and others.
SCREEN SIZE AND ADDITIONAL MONITORS. It is an important factor for any person that deals with visual matters (a designer or a video editor).
KEYBOARD. It is the part, which it is easy to forget about, but which still has no worthy alternatives in mobile devices: traditional PC are still necessary to write big texts and a code.
UPGRADEABILITY AND ADDITIONAL DEVICES. Yet mobile phones are not developed enough, computers have (and even desktop computers as compared to laptops) an important advantage — the possibility to enhance and upgrade, from new video cards and processors to plug-and- play devices.
VIDEO. There is another important part for professionals: personal computers yet operate much better with video. Yes, it is possible to watch HD video on pads and laptops, but there are a lot of things, which they are not able to do: from rendering and processing up to simulation operations for scientists.
POWER. Except power in operations with video, personal computers have still higher the ordinary computing power. We already told that this power is excessive and even reached a certain upper limit for ordinary users, but it is still necessary for professionals.
THE POSSIBILITY TO OPEN SEVERAL WINDOWS SIMULTANEOUSLY. With the appearance of windows in operating systems, interfaces of personal computers became much more convenient; and mobile devices still did not win in UI convenience. This option is important for all categories: from designers to journalists.
PC has not died — yet nobody knows what is it. The last and the most important matter: we simply don’t know anymore what is a PC. PC means “a personal computer” but actually, this word became a synonym of operating systems: Windows, Linux and Mac OS. Smartphones and pads are “personal computers” to the same extent as all the rest. They are more powerful than computers, with which we grew in the nineties. Borders are really erased. For example, Surface 2 pad equipped with Windows RT — is it a PC? Probably, not: the software that usually runs under Windows does not operate in it. But if somebody will attach a keyboard, a mouse and a monitor; and then it will start operating in Office? And the smartphone with Ubuntu — is it a computer? No, it seems a phone. But what will be if one will attach a monitor to it and run full-rate Linux? We will receive a computer, which runs from the smartphone. The companies erase borders by themselves: Microsoft connects phones and pads, and Ubuntu develops the uniform OS suitable to operate in computers and phones at the same time. Or, let us say, Chromebook that gains more and more popularity — the laptop, which is fabricated by Google and runs under Chrome OS; it has extremely limited functionality, but which is enough for many people. Microsoft explains in its terribly scornful advertisement that Chromebook is not a full-rate computer because it needs continuous connection to the Internet (it is a lie, although there is not enough sense in it without the Internet) and it doesn’t operate as a traditional PC. Whether it stops to be a computer? The answer is simple: we are living in the world, where all kinds of hardware and software exist — and their amount is much bigger than 10 or 5 years ago, but PCs do not die simply because people have a possibility to choose. There will be always those persons, who will need big screens, a mouse, a keyboard and the opportunity to open several windows. Now everything will look in a different way. Remember, how TV sets were buried when computers appeared, and how they evolved.